Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Gretzky, Orr, Howe, Lemieux?

Ever since Wayne Gretzky retired, who was greater: Orr or Gretzky? If we are going to compare these two players, who played different positions in vastly different eras, then we begin our analysis with the most accurate measure of a player's overall strength: Plus/Minus Ratio. Plus/Minus Ratio is a number (positive/negative) that is added to, every time a player's team scores (at EVEN STRENGTH) and that player is on the ice. Conversely, if the player is on the ice (at EVEN STRENGTH) and the other team scores, a point is subtracted from the player in question. Although not perfect, Plus/Minus (+/-) Ratio is the only statistic in Hockey that accounts for a players offensive AND defensive abilities. What follows is a tremendous analysis of Bobby Orr vs. Wayne Gretzkey vs. Gordie Howe vs. etc... This fine piece of work comes to us from Ian Wilson. Ian can be reached for comment or questions at: gobruins@fundy.net Bear in mind that no defenceman's stats should stack up against a forward. Bobby was on the ice in every key defensive situation the Bruins faced. They didn't start to keep +/- until 1967-68, Bobby's second season. Bobby's career +/- is 597 Wayne's career +/- is 518 Marios career +/- is 114  Bobby's best year was +124, Wayne's was +98, Mario's was +55. Bobby never had a minus season, Wayne and Mario both had 7 minus seasons.
Bobby's +/- seasons
1967-68 +30
1968-69 +65
1969-70 +54
1970-71 +124 (all-time record)
1971-72 +86
1972-73 +56
1973-74 +84
1974-75 +80
1975-76 +10 (10 games played)
1976-77 +6 (20 games with Chicago)
1977-78 (Did Not Play)
1978-79 +2 (6 Games played with Chicago)
I don't think Gretzky is the best player ever, not even close, but one thing you have to credit the guy with is durability. When you view his +/- stats over the length of his career, it's not all that good, and doesn't really compare with other forwards. For instance, going into this year Wayne was at +541 in 1417 games, for an average of +0.38 per game. Bobby was +0.91 per game, FAR AND AWAY THE BEST EVER. Larry Robinson is next closest at something around 0.54 per game. Wayne's numbers don't compare with a lot of very good scorers, who also happened to know there were two ends of the ice, players like Mike Bossy and Bryan Trottier, Rick Middleton for instance, who are around 0.45 per game. Bobby's +124 in 1970-71 is an NHL record, and the .91 +/- per game is almost twice the nearest guy, Larry Robinson, so that is a record too. There will be comparisons, but for the most part I believe most people who saw both players play agree that Bobby was the best. Gretzky is a great player, but he's not Bobby Orr. I don't even think he was Gordie Howe for that matter. The game is different today, and Wayne had the advantage of playing when goals were scored at a rate twice as high as when Gordie played. To give you an idea, Wayne retired at 38, having scored 12 goals this season. Gordie Howe had three more seasons in which he scored over 30 goals after he turned 39. I happen to believe that the most amazing "stat" in hockey is that Gordie Howe finished in the top five in scoring for 21 straight seasons. Wayne did it for 8 seasons. In Gordie Howe's final NHL season, at AGE 52, he scored 15 goals.